Steak and the Economy
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it” — Ronald Reagan
In the past, I’ve written about housing starts as a leading economic indicator. Investopedia defines it as, “how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed throughout the month. This indicator isn’t a huge market mover, but it has been reported by U.S. Census that the housing industry represents over 25% of investment dollars and a 5% value of the overall economy.”
“Housing starts are considered to be a leading indicator, meaning it detects trends in the economy looking forward. Declining housing starts show a slowing economy, while increases in housing activity can pull an economy out of a downturn. As interest rates rise it is expected that housing starts will decline.”
This isn’t new news. The builders have been hitting the brakes this past year as reported by CNNMoney. They also note that, “The slowdown in real estate has economic implications beyond builders’ finances and payrolls. Home price appreciation has been a key driver in household wealth, and the cooling real estate market could also cut into consumer spending, as home owners are no longer able to tap into their home equity to finance their spending.” We have written about this before… many times.
In the current issue of Fortune magazine, Matthew Boyle introduces another economic indicator: our national appetite for steak. He argues that this the best gut check on the economy and he reviews the stocks of publicly traded steakhouses and how they’ve all seen some sort of decline since the beginning of the year. Outback has had a 5% decline in same-store sales and Smith & Wolensky can’t even get an analyst to cover their stock. Morton’s and Ruth’s Chris, which both just going public in the last year, has had a hard time getting investors to bite.
Is steak really an accurate economic thermometer? Or are gas prices the real culprit? Or is it just a general trend toward buckling down on household expenses as we enter the holiday season. What are you doing these days with your disposable income? Are you saving more? Or do you just have less to spend?
I am at the point I believe very little as to “indicators.” We have been lied to by so many people in so many differing arenas of our lives- the government, industry, Wall Street trading, etc- that its hard to have any idea which end is up.
I am only going by how my family is making its way in the world.