No confidence: a weak administration equals a weak dollar
No confidence is worse than false confidence, and the obnoxious and arrogant hubris that is spewed by economic idiots like the current President of the United States ‘“ George W. Bush has become nauseating. Lets be crystal clear (as Richard Nixon would say), the record budget deficits, caused by ill advised tax cuts, an ill planed and ill conceived and an illegal war ‘“ (yes, we were most certainly lied to about the reasons for going to war ‘“ and how the man has not been impeached is beyond me ‘“ good going Nancy Pelosi!), are the tangible reasons for a weak dollar. I say tangible, because we can easily point to these things as catalysts for a shrinking greenback.
But what is not pointed to directly, is that the real reason is the total lack of confidence that the world has in this administration. Let me repeat the old maxim for the value of the realms coin. The value of the realms coin is determined solely based upon the confidence placed in the ruling administration in power at the time. A weak administration = a weak dollar.
Let me also be clear that Ben Bernanke has done a mediocre job at best running the Federal Reserve Bank. His terms is up in 2010, and were I president I would not re-appoint him to this post. He was far far too late to surmise the extent of the problem of the Sub Prime debt problem ‘“ this when his president of the NY Fed was warning last winter ‘“ no begging for attention to this problem that would bring down the system. Bernanke paid not heed at all.
Finally’¦and this really galls the hell out of me. Please, ok please let’s not fall one more time for this baloney that the recent decline in the price of oil isn’t somehow tied to swaying the American Electorate toward McCain (pro oil) and away from Obama (anti oil). It most certainly is. One can simply go back in time and look at the trading patterns of oil over the last several elections and note how the price is jacked up in the in the beginning of the summer and then by August comes crashing down ‘“ thus removed as a campaign issue for the anti oil candidate. We’re I an advisor to Sen. Obama, I might point this out and as there are many smarter people than me out there in academia on his campaign, they can work up the tables to show this pattern.
So, if I’m sounding a little jaundiced today, it’s because I’m just a little fed up with the crap that we keep being fed and expected to swallow.
What is true and what I can believe ‘¦.
1. You don’t fight a war and lower taxes
2. You don’t treat a crisis as if it was an ordinary event
3. You don’t look at patterns and say there’s not a pattern
4. Don’t look at George W. Bush and say he’s done a good job
The worst president in the history of the United States by a margin so wide (that you could float the QE II through Erie Canal) = George W. Bush! He should be impeached, and he and Dick Cheney should be tried for War Crimes.
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Walter Schubert, a third generation member of the New York Stock Exchange is the Founder and CEO of GFN.com: The Gay Financial Network.
Photo credit: stock.xchng.
Hear, hear!
Walter: What is true and what can I believe about how and when the market and economy will take a turn for the better?
Nina:
We used to say that when you think it can’t get any worse, and the pain is felt by everyone, that, this is the bottom and the turn is near. However, while this may be true, there also is usually an ‘event’ that everyone can point to which was the tipping point to better times. That event could be the election.
I have been saying to my friends that if it looks pretty clear that Obama will be elected, the market will rally – YES rally. Many of my friends on Wall Street think I’m crazy because Obama wants to raise taxes. But lets remember that the world like fiscal discipline and responsible management. If McCain is projected to win the market will continue its slide.
If Obama wins it may be the event that we need to get this train back on the right track. I’m a buyer if he takes the oath of office.
You can’t underestimate how the costs of thinking you need to be the world’s policeman negatively affects the value of the dollar. The Iraq War, having troops stationed all over the world, trying to have influence in places we shouldn’t be in – that all contributes to our massive budget deficit and why the USD is a piece of crap.
Once this country realizes it can’t and shouldn’t be the world’s policeman, a lot of our problems will be ameliorated.